Global smartphone shipments fell 20% year over year during the third quarter of 2026, according to preliminary figures from Omdia released October 15. Rising memory and storage costs have constrained manufacturers’ pricing options and contributed to a pullback in lower-margin models. Counterpoint Research independently reported a similar decline, identifying the lowest third-quarter shipment level since 2012. Its senior analyst Shilpi Jain said consumers are keeping their phones longer than the firm had estimated, increasingly considering refurbished alternatives and prioritizing higher-value devices.
For mobile device recovery and refurbishment businesses, the downturn creates competing pressures. Higher new-device prices can make professionally refurbished handsets more attractive, particularly to price-sensitive buyers. Yet delayed upgrades also mean fewer phones could enter trade-in and recovery channels in the near term. The difference between consumer interest in used phones and the supply of suitable devices is central to the commercial outlook.
The issue extends to enterprise mobility programs and electronics recyclers. Businesses could reconsider replacement schedules as handset acquisition costs rise, while downstream processors could see changes in incoming volumes and device condition. The shipment figures establish a substantial contraction in the new-device market, but they do not measure actual used-device transactions or retired phone collections.
Key Findings & Outlook
- Global smartphone shipments declined sharply. Omdia estimates a 20% year-over-year decline in the third quarter of 2026, following a 6% decline in the previous quarter. IDC’s separate preliminary estimate puts the third-quarter decline at 22%, while Counterpoint also reports 20%.
- The downturn is historically significant. Counterpoint describes the quarter as the weakest third quarter for global smartphone shipments since 2012, a 14-year low.
- Premium brands gained shipment share. Samsung and Apple accounted for 45% of third-quarter shipments in Omdia’s estimates, up approximately eight percentage points from a year earlier.
- Consumers are keeping devices longer. Counterpoint senior analyst Shilpi Jain reports longer ownership periods and greater consideration of refurbished phones. Those observations do not establish higher refurbished sales volumes.
- Cost pressures could continue through 2027. Omdia principal analyst Runar Bjorhovde told The Register that relief from the memory shortage is not expected before 2028 at the earliest. IDC also sees little prospect of recovery before 2028.
A hardware supply shock reaches the handset market
Omdia’s October 15 release describes a worsening smartphone market in which third-quarter shipments declined both from a year earlier and from the preceding quarter. Memory and storage costs have reduced manufacturers’ ability to maintain affordable pricing, particularly for lower-margin devices. The quarterly decline followed a 6% year-over-year contraction in the second quarter, indicating that the pressure intensified during the summer.
Three research firms provide separate preliminary estimates of the third-quarter contraction. Omdia estimates a 20% year-over-year decline, with shipments of roughly 255 million units. Counterpoint also reports a 20% decline, while IDC estimates a 22% contraction and approximately 255.3 million units shipped. The figures come from separate research methods and should not be treated as identical measurements of completed manufacturer sales.
The market also shows an uneven competitive impact. Samsung retained first place with a 23% market share and Apple remained second at 22%, with the two companies together accounting for 45% of the global market. That combined share rose by about eight percentage points from the previous year, according to Omdia. Shipment share reflects new-device distribution, however, and does not establish the brands or models currently available through recovery channels.
The memory shortage also has a longer-term dimension. Omdia forecasts global smartphone shipments will decline 12% during 2026 and a further 6% in 2027. Its principal analyst Runar Bjorhovde told The Register that he does not anticipate relief from the memory crisis before 2028 at the earliest, given the expected gap between memory demand and supply. IDC likewise sees little prospect of a market recovery before 2028.
A prolonged period of high component costs could extend the pressure on the used-phone market beyond a single quarter. Consumers considering refurbished devices could encounter limited availability of desirable models if existing owners continue delaying upgrades. For mobile ITAD companies, that prospect makes procurement commitments and incoming inventory forecasts especially important. The shipment forecasts do not establish how many additional consumers will purchase refurbished phones or how much trade-in supply will change.
Why the recovery market could react differently
The used-phone business depends on a recurring flow of devices from trade-in programs, consumer upgrades and corporate fleet replacement. When purchasers delay buying a new handset, many keep the old one in use. A decline in new-phone shipments can therefore indicate reduced near-term supply for refurbishment, although the relationship is not direct because upgrades and trade-ins do not occur in every transaction.
At the same time, buyers who might previously have purchased an entry-level new phone could consider a refurbished premium model. That comparison can make certain used generations more attractive when quality, warranty coverage and battery performance meet buyers’ expectations. The commercial benefit is less certain for devices with limited software support or high repair costs.
An ITAD operator could face stronger resale inquiries while finding fewer acceptable devices available to purchase. Higher selling prices do not guarantee better margins when acquisition costs rise at the same time. Refurbishers need to monitor incoming volumes and actual selling prices separately, along with the time required to sell inventory. Consumer interest in refurbished phones does not automatically translate into more profitable transactions.
Brand concentration affects future refurbishment inventory
Omdia’s findings show the largest manufacturers gaining share while some competitors focused on affordable segments experienced sharper shipment declines. That shift could influence the future mix of used-device inventory because today’s new phones become potential trade-ins several years later. The timing will depend on ownership periods and how much of the installed base eventually reaches formal recovery channels.
Brand mix is commercially important because software support and replacement parts differ across manufacturers and device generations. Consistent model availability can support standardized refurbishment processes. A wider variety of less common devices can increase testing and spare-parts costs, reducing the margin available on individual units.
The market-share shift does not mean premium brands will immediately supply additional used devices. Existing owners could retain their phones longer as replacement prices rise. Recovery providers should distinguish changes in current manufacturer shipments from potential changes in future secondary-market inventory.
Battery condition and software support limit reuse
A smartphone that powers on and passes basic diagnostics could still require significant refurbishment before it is suitable for resale. Battery performance and screen condition can determine whether a device meets the standards of a professional secondary-market seller. Software support is another consideration, especially when a refurbished phone is expected to remain in service for several more years.
These factors become more important when consumers consider refurbished models as alternatives to expensive new phones. Buyers seeking lower prices still expect reliable performance. Warranties and transparent device grading can help sellers build confidence, but they also create costs that must be covered by the resale margin.
Recovery companies should track the financial return on each incoming model. A device commanding a relatively high resale price could still be unattractive if its replacement screen or battery costs are excessive. Conversely, reliable access to compatible parts could make a moderately priced handset a stronger refurbishment candidate than an uncommon premium model.
Enterprise mobility decisions introduce another supply variable
Corporate phones enter secondary markets through leasing returns and structured employee replacement programs, as well as other enterprise collection arrangements. Unlike consumer trade-ins, these returns can follow planned schedules and include equipment records, making them attractive to ITAD providers seeking more predictable procurement relationships. Enterprise customers also face higher replacement costs and could extend device service where security requirements permit.
IT asset management and mobility teams should evaluate whether longer replacement cycles are compatible with application support and device security. They also need reliable procedures for removing corporate accounts and data before handsets are transferred. The timing of equipment release can affect residual value, particularly when changing model availability influences buyer demand.
For commercial recovery businesses, understanding customers’ replacement plans becomes increasingly useful. Forecasts based on confirmed enterprise return schedules can provide a stronger basis for procurement than treating aggregate shipment declines as an immediate market opportunity. Providers could also offer testing and battery replacement services for devices retained within enterprise fleets where those services are economically justified.
Recycling outcomes could differ from refurbishment demand
The smartphone recovery stream contains equipment suitable for continued use and a portion that cannot be restored economically, depending on incoming device quality. Rising prices for new phones could encourage additional attempts to repair devices that would otherwise be directed toward recycling. The result could be a smaller share of collected devices entering immediate material recovery, although no such shift has been established by the shipment figures.
Downstream recyclers need to distinguish the total number of phones collected from the quantity ultimately sent for recycling. A refurbishment business can increase the share of devices returned to use without increasing total intake. The material remaining for recycling can also change as batteries and damaged components are removed during testing and repair.
Battery handling and safe processing remain important operating requirements. Damaged lithium-ion cells present transportation and treatment risks that stronger commodity prices cannot resolve. Qualified downstream partners should receive appropriate information about material condition, while collection companies should avoid forecasting metal supply from new-device shipment reports alone.
Industry Outlook
The third-quarter shipment contraction provides strong evidence of disruption in the new-device market, with memory costs weighing especially heavily on lower-priced handsets. For refurbished equipment sellers, the commercial opportunity lies in serving buyers who cannot justify higher new-phone prices. Access to suitable inventory could become a limiting factor if consumers continue keeping their existing phones longer.
Mobile ITAD operators with structured enterprise collection agreements and strong testing capabilities could be better positioned to manage uneven supply. Buyers could also become more selective about device condition and remaining software support, affecting the prices individual models can command. These are reasonable business considerations, although the shipment reports do not establish an increase in refurbished sales or demonstrate which operators are gaining market share.
For downstream recycling, the outlook is similarly uncertain. Delayed upgrades could reduce collections, while additional repair activity could keep more phones out of immediate material recovery. The most useful forecasts will combine actual intake history with enterprise return schedules and model-specific refurbishment results.
The possibility of continued memory cost pressure through 2027 deserves attention from recovery companies planning inventory purchases. A sustained slowdown in new-device shipments could affect both the timing of incoming supply and the types of phones buyers seek in the secondary market. Actual trade-in volumes and completed resale transactions will provide a more reliable measure of those developments than new-phone shipment statistics alone.
Strategic Recommendations
Mobile ITAD providers
- Improve visibility into enterprise returns. Work with mobility customers to establish expected return schedules by model and equipment condition. Use those schedules to guide procurement commitments while allowing for changes in customers’ replacement plans.
- Measure profitability by model. Track acquisition costs and refurbishment results alongside net selling prices. Avoid assuming that limited incoming supply will always justify paying more for used devices.
Refurbishment and remarketing businesses
- Focus on models with demonstrated buyer demand. Prioritize device generations with adequate remaining software support and reliable access to replacement parts. Base purchasing decisions on completed transactions and actual refurbishment costs.
- Account for the full cost of resale. Include batteries, screens, diagnostics and warranty expenses when determining the amount that can be paid for incoming devices. Monitor returns and the time required to sell inventory to identify models whose economics are deteriorating.
Enterprise ITAM and sustainability teams
- Review replacement schedules against operating requirements. Longer device life can reduce immediate purchasing costs where equipment performance and security support remain acceptable. Maintain clear plans for recovering phones when they are eventually retired.
Downstream electronics recyclers
- Forecast material supply from actual recovery activity. Track the quantity of devices received and the portion remaining after refurbishment. Maintain appropriate procedures for damaged batteries and use qualified downstream processors for materials requiring specialized treatment.
Sources
- Omdia — Global Smartphone Market Shrinks 20% in 3Q26 as Memory Crisis Reshapes Competition, October 15, 2026. https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/oct/global-smartphone-market-shrinks-20percent-in-3q26-as-memory-crisis-reshapes-competition
- Counterpoint Research — Global Smartphone Shipments Hit a New Low With 20% YoY Decline, Lowest in 14 Years, October 12, 2026. https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-smartphone-shipments-hit-a-new-low-with-20-percent-yoy-decline-lowest-in-14-years
- Light Reading — Memory Crisis Fueling Smartphone Shipment Shrinkage – Omdia, October 15, 2026. https://www.lightreading.com/smartphones-devices/memory-crisis-fueling-smartphone-shipment-shrinkage-omdia
- The Register — Smartphone Shipments Plummet as Memory Crisis Pumps Up Prices, October 15, 2026. https://www.theregister.com/personal-tech/2026/10/15/smartphone-shipments-plummet-as-memory-crisis-pumps-up-prices/5303364