The second year of Microsoft’s commercial Windows 10 Extended Security Updates (ESU) program began in October 2026, bringing a higher cost for organizations that continue operating PCs on the aging system. Microsoft’s published first-year list price was 61 dollars per device, with the price doubling in each subsequent year. That makes the second-year list price 122 dollars, a new budget consideration for enterprises that have delayed the transition to Windows 11.
The change comes as PC replacement costs are rising sharply. Research firms Omdia and IDC estimate that global PC shipments fell by approximately 20% during the third quarter of 2026, with memory and storage shortages pushing up hardware prices. For enterprise IT managers, the combination of more expensive security extensions and higher replacement costs complicates the decision to retain or replace existing equipment.
For IT asset disposition (ITAD) providers, the more significant issue is how these choices affect refresh timing and which assets enter resale channels. A software deadline can bring forward a hardware replacement decision, but it can also encourage companies to retain machines when replacement costs exceed the expense of continued support.
For sustainability and IT asset management teams, the decision involves security and total cost of ownership as well as remaining hardware utility. The cost of continuing Windows 10 service is now more visible, while equipment resale prospects depend on its ability to support another operating environment and the needs of secondary buyers.
Key Findings & Outlook
- Commercial Windows 10 ESU pricing has doubled. The standard second-year list price is 122 dollars per device, based on Microsoft’s 61-dollar first-year rate and annual doubling rule. The program provides critical and important security updates without restoring normal feature development or general operating-system support.
- New PC shipments have contracted sharply. Omdia estimates that worldwide PC shipments declined 21.2% to 58.1 million units during the third quarter of 2026. IDC separately estimates a 20.1% decline to 62.7 million units.
- Memory and storage are taking a larger share of PC costs. According to Omdia, DRAM and SSDs now represent nearly 40% of PC component costs, compared with approximately 15% previously.
- Higher replacement costs complicate fleet decisions. Enterprises must weigh the cost of continued Windows 10 coverage against new hardware purchases. The resulting decisions could affect when PCs become available to ITAD providers.
- Windows 11 eligibility remains central to resale value. A working Windows 10 PC is not automatically obsolete hardware. Upgrade eligibility and the availability of secure alternative uses influence its secondary-market prospects.
The security extension has a defined cost
Microsoft ended regular Windows 10 support in October 2025 and established commercial ESU coverage for qualifying editions for as many as three years. The published first-year volume-licensing price was 61 dollars per device, doubling in each consecutive year.
The resulting standard list-price sequence is 61 dollars, 122 dollars and 244 dollars. Actual contracted pricing and eligibility for specialized offerings can differ, making these figures benchmarks for budget planning.
For an organization with 10,000 covered PCs, the standard second-year list-price entitlement represents 1.22 million dollars before discounts and related administrative costs. If an organization first enters ESU coverage in year two and must obtain the earlier entitlement, the cumulative list-price exposure would be 183 dollars per device, or 1.83 million dollars for that same fleet.
These calculations illustrate the financial scale of retaining a large Windows 10 fleet. They are based on Microsoft’s published commercial program rules and do not represent estimates of actual enterprise spending.
Extended updates are also a narrower product than a supported operating system. Microsoft describes ESU as security updates for eligible enrolled devices, excluding new features and ordinary nonsecurity fixes.
Enterprises still carry responsibility for applications and drivers, and software vendors can impose their own support deadlines. Keeping equipment in service therefore requires more than purchasing the additional security coverage.
Retention economics are specific to each fleet
The decision to replace a computer becomes more complicated when a business operates mixed hardware generations. A Windows 11-compatible PC may be eligible for an operating-system transition without a new hardware purchase, subject to licensing and application validation. Older machines may require replacement, while specialized workstations could remain in service temporarily because their application environments are difficult to migrate.
The rising cost of new PCs adds another consideration. The Register reported on October 9 that Omdia estimated global desktop, notebook and workstation shipments fell 21.2% year over year to 58.1 million units during the third quarter of 2026. IDC reported a separate preliminary estimate of 62.7 million units, down 20.1%. The two firms use different estimates of market size, but both show a substantial contraction in demand.
Memory and storage prices are a major contributor to the downturn. According to Omdia, DRAM and SSDs now account for nearly 40% of a PC’s component costs, up from approximately 15% previously. The increase is putting particular pressure on manufacturers whose customers are sensitive to hardware prices.
Commercial PC suppliers have also experienced significant shipment declines. IDC estimates that HP’s third-quarter shipments fell nearly 31% from a year earlier, while Dell recorded a 25% decline. These figures describe worldwide vendor shipments and do not measure enterprise PC retirements.
The price outlook suggests that replacement budgets will remain under pressure. IDC research director Jitesh Ubrani told The Register that temporary promotions could offer some relief, but the firm does not expect PC prices to return anywhere close to year-earlier levels. Omdia forecasts a further 24% year-over-year decline in shipments during the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by a 7% decline across 2027.
Higher replacement costs strengthen the financial case for retaining some existing PCs, particularly where a device remains operational and its security requirements can be met through ESU coverage. For ITAD providers, this could delay the release of equipment that would otherwise have entered refurbishment channels. Windows 11-eligible used machines could also become more attractive to buyers seeking lower-cost alternatives to new hardware. These potential effects depend on actual enterprise purchasing and resale activity; the shipment forecasts do not establish corresponding changes in used-PC volumes or prices.
An ITAM team assessing a refresh should compare the cost of continued support with the complete cost of replacement, including deployment and employee disruption. Residual asset value belongs in that calculation as well. A machine with credible remarketing demand may offer a financial offset to replacement, but that value can diminish during a prolonged transition if buyer demand changes or storage periods become extended.
For ITAD companies, the ESU deadline and the PC pricing environment provide reasons for customer engagement, but neither offers a reliable forecast of collection volume on its own. A client with a well-advanced Windows 11 migration may release few additional devices in 2026. Another may retire an entire incompatible fleet during the same period. The commercial difference will emerge from procurement plans and device-level asset records.
Windows 11 eligibility shapes residual value
Secondary-market buyers do not purchase computers solely on the basis of the operating system they previously ran. Model, processor generation, storage health and hardware condition remain important, but the ability to install a currently supported operating system changes the range of potential customers.
Microsoft’s Windows 11 minimum requirements include specific security capabilities and compatible processors, excluding some otherwise operational Windows 10 machines.
Refurbishers should therefore separate upgrade-eligible equipment from assets lacking a straightforward supported Windows 11 path. Eligible devices can be assessed for standard refurbishment and remarketing.
Ineligible devices may still have value in particular controlled applications, as parts, or through alternative software environments where their security and support requirements are satisfied. A working display and functional processor are insufficient evidence of responsible enterprise or consumer reuse.
A useful recovery process starts with hardware identification before equipment leaves the enterprise. Serial-number-level configuration records allow the disposition provider to route assets toward appropriate testing.
Early identification also helps the asset owner avoid approving recycling for equipment with a viable second life or assuming resale proceeds for devices with very limited demand.
Security controls remain essential during transition
Enterprises cannot assume that an expired operating-system support period eliminates data risks or simplifies equipment disposition. Drives and other storage media may still contain business information, and some devices have specialized storage configurations.
Appropriate sanitization remains necessary before reuse or downstream processing, with procedures selected for the media and the organization’s data-protection requirements.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology’s SP 800-88 Revision 2 provides a current framework for media sanitization programs. It emphasizes appropriate sanitization outcomes and supporting documentation.
ITAD providers serving enterprises during the Windows 10 transition need to demonstrate secure collection and processing capabilities across different device configurations.
Delays between collection and resale introduce another financial risk. If a customer schedules a large refresh but assets sit in warehouses awaiting assessment, the value anticipated when the plan was approved may not be realized.
Operational coordination between the asset owner and disposition provider can help preserve residual value, particularly when used-PC prices and buyer preferences are changing.
Enterprise sustainability teams face a mixed outcome
A supported second life for a PC can defer the environmental burden associated with manufacturing another unit. Extending equipment service can therefore contribute to resource-efficiency objectives, provided the hardware remains suitable for its workload and is managed securely.
The ESU program gives organizations a temporary security-update option but does not make all older equipment equally appropriate for continued service.
Replacement decisions can also release machines before the end of their mechanical lives. Where that occurs, refurbishment becomes an important consideration in avoiding premature material recovery.
Sustainability programs should distinguish equipment reused internally, sold for external reuse and processed for recycling. Counting every collected PC as recycled obscures the contribution of resale and redeployment.
Procurement and sustainability personnel should be involved before refresh orders are finalized. They can assess upgrade eligibility and whether legitimate secondary buyers exist, along with the reporting evidence the chosen disposition provider will deliver.
These records can help organizations evaluate the financial and environmental results of their replacement programs.
Industry Outlook
The move into the second commercial ESU year makes delayed Windows 10 migration more expensive for organizations using standard licenses. At the same time, higher PC component costs are raising the financial burden of equipment replacement.
The combination creates competing incentives. Some enterprises will accelerate upgrades to avoid accumulating support costs, while others will retain equipment because purchasing new PCs has become more expensive.
For ITAD providers, the likely result is a varied equipment stream shaped by customers’ individual replacement decisions. Some organizations will release upgrade-ineligible hardware, while others may remarket capable machines following operating-system changes.
Providers that assess Windows 11 eligibility and secondary-market demand early in the planning process will be better positioned to protect residual value.
The broader PC market outlook adds uncertainty to these decisions. Omdia’s forecasts point to continued shipment declines through 2027, while IDC expects pricing pressure to remain significant. For enterprise customers, waiting to replace computers may reduce near-term capital spending but also extends the period during which older equipment needs technical and security support.
Downstream recyclers will receive machines with limited viable reuse options, but total material volume cannot be derived from the ESU calendar or the decline in new-PC shipments. The strongest commercial indicator remains a confirmed refresh project with identifiable devices and a defined disposition plan.
Strategic Recommendations
Enterprise ITAM and procurement leaders
- Separate PCs according to their upgrade options. Identify machines that can migrate to Windows 11, devices requiring temporary ESU coverage and equipment scheduled for retirement. Apply actual negotiated license and replacement costs to each group.
- Recalculate replacement budgets using current PC pricing. Incorporate higher hardware acquisition costs into ESU-versus-replacement decisions. Include deployment expenses and realistic residual asset values before approving a refresh.
- Involve sustainability teams before final disposition. Identify functional equipment suitable for continued use or resale before directing assets toward recycling.
ITAD providers
- Offer early fleet assessments. Identify Windows 11 eligibility and likely reuse channels before customer refresh plans are finalized. Use completed resale transactions when estimating residual values.
- Monitor customer replacement plans closely. Higher new-PC prices could extend some equipment holding periods. Plan collection schedules around confirmed enterprise purchasing and deployment activity.
- Evaluate resale opportunities for Windows 11-compatible systems. Buyer interest in lower-cost used equipment deserves attention, but acquisition prices should reflect actual demand and refurbishment costs.
Downstream electronics recyclers
- Base processing forecasts on confirmed equipment releases. Request model-level retirement records and distinguish material-only shipments from equipment still suitable for refurbishment.
- Plan capacity around actual incoming quantities. Neither Microsoft’s ESU pricing schedule nor the new-PC shipment contraction establishes recycling volumes.
Sources
- Microsoft Learn — Extended Security Updates Program for Windows 10
- Microsoft — Windows 10 Extended Security Updates Program
- Microsoft Learn — Product Lifecycle FAQ: Extended Security Updates
- Microsoft — Windows 11 System Requirements
- NIST — Guidelines for Media Sanitization, SP 800-88 Revision 2
- The Register — Global PC Shipments Crater 20% as Rising Prices Hammer Demand, October 9, 2026